The election of a new Croatian president, Ivo Josipovic – who defeated the mayor of Zagreb, Milan Bandic, in a second round run-off – is likely to contribute to a thaw in relations with neighbours Serbia. Aside from a much-lauded commitment to fight corruption and organised crime, Josipovic's early remarks reveal a constructive and pragmatic approach to the issues that have plagued ties between the two countries; particularly when contrasted with those of the man he will succeed as president, Stjepan Mesic.
In spite of Josipovic's refreshing stance, however, a number of obstacles remain that will continue to complicate matters, despite the expressed good intentions of both sides. During the final gasps of Mesic's second five-year term, relations between the two have sunk to their lowest ebb since Croatia recognized Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in March 2008.
A recent visit to Kosovo by Mesic (which was initially timed to coincide with Orthodox Christmas, but eventually shifted by a day), where he talked about the "new reality" of Kosovo's independence and called for further recognitions, caused consternation in Serbia, whose government has consistently called on countries to refrain from such comments while the International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers its verdict on the legality of Kosovo's declaration. In the same period, Mesic reduced the sentence handed down to Sinisa Rimac, a former Croatian police officer, who was convicted of killing 23 ethnic Serb civilians in Croatia in 1991: a decision that Serbia's president, Boris Tadic, condemned as an "anti-European and anti-civilisational gesture which cannot be justified by any means".
Josipovic's description of relations between Croatia and Serbia as "a strategic priority", however, provides an important opportunity for renewed progress. Part of this pragmatism derives from Croatia's deteriorating economic position (its economy is believed to have contracted by around 5% in 2009), with Josipovic emphasising how "co-operation with our neighbours is also important for our economy, because we are mainly exporting to these states... [and] we are expecting the arrival of new tourists too".
A number of key impediments remain, however, particularly concerning the mutual claims for genocide before the ICJ, with Croatia having filed a case, co-authored by Josipovic, in 1999 and Serbia responding with a countersuit earlier this year. These lawsuits have been deemed a setback in efforts to establish good neighbourly relations, a key element of the region's bid for membership of the EU. Immediately upon his election triumph, however, Josipovic publicly discussed the possibility of dropping Croatia's genocide case, in order to "see whether certain problems and obstacles can be resolved without lawsuits". Josipovic – who stated that many Croatian citizens "have certain unrealistic expectations about the lawsuit" – has instead proposed to "negotiate with Belgrade about missing persons, war crimes trials and the return of cultural treasures".
Dropping the respective cases would create the political and diplomatic space to attend to other issues, including those of "former and current refugees, the processing of war crimes, the exhumation and identification of the missing, the return of displaced persons, compensation for destroyed and seized property, a comprehensive solution for tenants' rights and the regulation of unpaid pensions". In tandem, the EU must invest some of its considerable leverage – as it has done in the battles against organised crime and corruption – to ensure that both Croatia and Serbia contend with the tangible legacies of the 1990s: legacies that despite afflicting the daily lives of hundreds of thousands have regularly been denied the recognition they deserve.
While the issue of Kosovo will remain a source of lingering discord, the early signs suggest that Josipovic will contribute to a much-needed improvement in relations between Serbia and Croatia. A plethora of challenges remain, however, to ensure that any improvement in ties has tangible benefits for those citizens afflicted by previous antagonisms. Such commitments to good neighbourly relations, rhetorically at least, will continue to rival anti-corruption as the "new nationalism" of the Balkans.
Source:guardian.co.uk/
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